Global GDP growth prospects
THE world economy will grow by 2.9% in 2015, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). In 2014 world GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.5%. Global growth will be boosted by lower oil prices: a 10% fall is thought to add 0.2 percentage points to world GDP. America will be the best-performing rich-world economy in 2015, with growth forecast at 3.3%. But the world economy will be held back by weakness in the euro area and Japan, and by slower growth in emerging markets. China will see expansion slow to 7% in 2015.
Excluding Japan, Asia and Australasia will be the world’s fastest-growing region in 2015. Papua New Guinea is predicted to be the zippiest economy of all, expanding by almost 15%, nearly twice as fast as any other country. At the other end of the spectrum, Russia’s economy will suffer from the dual blows of falling oil revenues and Western sanctions; and Macau’s GDP will shrink thanks to a slump in gambling revenues. But the worst-performing country of 2015 will be Sierra Leone, due to the Ebola outbreak in west Africa.
Deutsche Bank 2015 Outlook of GDP Growth
Deutsche Bank recently circulated its view on what the world economy will look like in 2015.
The big takeaway is that it expects global growth to speed up this year, with strong growth in the US and China offsetting a weaker eurozone.
Deutsche Bank is predicting global GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015, up from 3.3% in 2014. A big part of that jump comes from the bank’s projection that US growth will accelerate to 3.7% this year, powered by ongoing accommodation by the Fed, stronger consumer and business spending, a housing market finally returning to normal, and the presumed boost to consumers from lower oil prices.
Deutsche Bank’s projections are nicely summarized in this map from the report showing its projections for GDP growth in various countries and pointing out some of the major highlights.
Note that big red blob in the upper right. That’s Russia.